Arya News - More than 100,000 people displaced last year alone, adding to the 1.3 million people already forced to flee from their homes.
Mozambique government has begun a two-day forum to discuss the future of displaced people in the country as a devastating armed conflict in the northern Cabo Delgado region enters its ninth year.
Since 2017, resource-rich northern Mozambique has battled an ISIL-affiliated armed group, known locally as al-Shabab, but which has no affiliation with the Somali armed group of the same name. Heavy troop deployments to the affected areas have so far failed to dislodge the group.
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The latest wave of violence affected all 17 districts of the Cabo Delgado region for the first time. Some former host communities are now fleeing for safety as well, while many others are being displaced multiple times.
More than 1.3 million have fled their homes in the course of the conflict, with 100,000 people recently displaced in late 2025 alone, according to the United Nations.
With no military solution in sight, some are calling for negotiations.
Here’s what we know about the conflict’s history and why a new wave of violence is happening:
Soldiers from the Rwandan security forces are seen near the Afungi natural gas site, Mozambique, September 22, 2021 [File: Baz Ratner/Reuters] What has happened in Cabo Delgado this year?
Renewed clashes between the Mozambican army and allied forces on the one hand, and al-Shabab or Islamic State Mozambique Province (ISMP) on the other, since late 2025 have worsened an ongoing humanitarian disaster.
Between January and July, at least 28,163 people were displaced; 65 percent of them were women and children.
Clashes have been recorded around the strategic town of Mocimboa de Praia and surrounding areas. Armed activity has also been reported in formerly safe towns like Mueda, once a hub of displaced people and humanitarian organisations.
Amid US-led global aid cuts, several aid organisations have exited the north or limited their operations. The UN said the humanitarian response is reaching 619,000 of the 1.1 million people recently targeted due to funding gaps.
About 1.8 million people need assistance, including a million children, according to UNICEF.
Some 6,000 people are believed to have been killed since 2017.
In recent months, though, fewer people have moved, despite the violence, Hannah Danziger da Silva, country representative for aid organisation We World, told Al Jazeera.
“People are just tired, I guess,” she said. “They’re just running into the bushes when attacks happen and then returning. People don’t want to have to leave their crops and homes behind again.”
Northern Mozambique is also facing more intense floods and cyclones, making the crisis multilayered. Cyclone Chido, in late 2024, displaced nearly 100,000 people.
What is ISMP and what does it want?
ISMP, with an estimated 300 to 500 members, is a relatively small group, compared with other ISIL (also known as ISIS) affiliates in Africa. But it is one of the most lethal.
Peter Bofin of ACLED, a conflict monitor, told Al Jazeera the group has managed to survive by protecting illicit finance networks and maintaining strong local support networks.
ISMP was initially led by Abu Yasir Hassan “Abu Qasim”, a Tanzanian, but he is believed to be dead. The new de facto leader, researcher sources say, is another Tanzanian called “Farido.”
The group emerged in northern Mozambique in the early 2010s. At the time, several groups were forming in the mostly Muslim north, where many have historically felt neglected by the government in Maputo. The area, despite riches in ruby, gold, marine wildlife and gas, is Mozambique’s poorest. Droughts and cyclones are also reducing agricultural proceeds and deepening poverty.
Agitation for fairer distribution of wealth intensified when gas was discovered in the region in 2010, and as international companies like Anadarko (later acquired by Total) moved in.
In 2017, about 30 al-Shabab fighters launched a series of bloody attacks on police stations and civilians in the port town of Mocimboa de Praia, setting off the armed rebellion. Around the same time, Tanzania had clamped down on separatist figures, forcing them to flee across the border.
The fighters told villagers that they carried out the attacks because they rejected state institutions and Western education, and sought to establish a religious state.
Sporadic attacks continued through 2019, with 464 civilians killed between 2017 and 2019, when the group was formally acknowledged by ISIL. Its signature style was particularly gruesome: Fighters beheaded and chopped civilians on football pitches, or shot them at close range and burned their homes.
Attacks peaked in 2020 when ISMP seized the town of Mocimboa de Praia, expelling government forces. It also inched closer to the multibillion-dollar Total LNG project site. Between 2017 and 2020, at least 2,000 civilians were killed.
A woman and her children return to their damaged house after cyclone Chido in northern Pemba, Mozambique, December 18, 2024 [File: Shafiek Tassiem/Reuters] How has the government responded?
Mozambican forces attempted to quell the armed rebellion alone but without results in the early days.
“The Mozambican army is quite small,” Bofin noted. “They’re not especially well trained nor well equipped.”
The security forces have also been accused of being corrupt. President Daniel Chapo said last year that some members “sell out their homeland” by leaking details of security operations.
In January 2021, Total evacuated its staff following attacks on villages close to the project site. Then, in March, it suspended the gas project after fighters targeted and destroyed Palma town, just 10km (6.2 miles) away.
Maputo then stepped up its efforts to halt the rebellion. By July, Mozambique had signed a deal with Rwanda to deploy an initial 1,000 battle-trained Rwandan Defence Forces to the region to defend the gas project. A 2,200-strong contingent from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) also deployed.
Mozambican and allied forces launched major offensives on ISMP, regained territory, and pushed the fighters back into their forested base. By late 2021, some ISMP fighters deserted the group amid reports of a significant lack of supplies.
Why is there a resurgence in fighting now?
Although ISMP never completely halted attacks, it appears to have recovered and retooled since late 2021.
“They’re quite adaptable,” Bofin said. “They’re able to change circumstances quickly while maintaining coherence in leadership structures.”
The group has since resorted to strengthening its revenue sources. It started kidnapping people, forcing families to send money through mobile money networks. It has also taxed gold mined illegally in the region, and engaged in its own mining activities. Bofin said this push for domestic financing comes as Somalia, backed by the US, has intensified attacks on IS-Somalia, where ISMP’s funding used to flow from.
ISMP has also forcefully recruited fighters.
Some 5,000 RDF soldiers are still stationed in the north, but mostly around the LNG project area. They have not been as aggressive in other areas as they were in the early days, Bofin pointed out.
Meanwhile, SADC’s 2,200 troops exited Mozambique in 2024. There are speculations of weak intelligence sharing and other frictions with the Mozambican army. Analysts point out that the SADC exit allowed ISMP to regain influence in some towns like Macomia and Quissanga.
What next?
As the conflict nears a decade, President Chapo appears eager to test a pathway his predecessors shunned: negotiations.
The move is in line with a combination military-and-diplomatic tactic that Mozambican intellectuals have been calling for. However, the president, in an interview with Al Jazeera , alluded to the challenges of identifying exactly whom to dialogue with.
“We will continue working [fighting on the ground], while we also try to identify the leaders and their motivations, to see if, through this path, we can also continue working,” he said.
It’s not unusual for local authorities to have agreements with ideological armed groups, as seen in conflict-affected countries like Burkina Faso.
There is no evidence that state-level negotiations have worked with any such groups.
Some say dialogue should also include northern communities: their historical grievances should be heard, and poverty should be tackled.
Meanwhile, Bofin noted, ISMP is attempting to rebrand and is using a less aggressive approach in local communities where it commands influence.
However, the group is surprisingly meeting greater resistance from the Mozambican army, which appears to be on the offensive.
In August, ACLED recorded four clashes between ISMP and the Mozambican forces, and all, Bofin said, were initiated by government troops.