Arya News - Opposition parties have once again repeated a familiar pattern of coming together and parting ways, accelerating the fragmentation and weakening of the opposition bloc.
TOKYO – With its key goal of uniting centrist forces stalled, an uncertain future for the Centrist Reform Alliance — the largest opposition party in the House of Representatives — has forced it to disband just over seven months after its launch.
Opposition parties have once again repeated a familiar pattern of coming together and parting ways, accelerating the fragmentation and weakening of the opposition bloc.
Lower house members of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito formed the CRA in January this year to counter the chamber’s dissolution by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who is also Liberal Democratic Party president. Although the new party touted this “unification of centrist forces,” it failed to draw up key policy measures and suffered a crushing defeat in February’s lower house election. The CDPJ and Komeito held 167 seats before the election, but the drubbing left them with just 49 seats. After that, the CRA was unable to regain momentum and its approval ratings remained low.
In the 2017 lower house election, the Democratic Party, then the largest opposition party, hastily decided to merge its lower house members with the Party of Hope founded by Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike in an attempt to achieve a change in government. However, the effort ran out of steam and ended in a heavy defeat. The CRA trod a similar path as the party rushed a merger without spending sufficient time on policy coordination, leading to the party’s collapse following an election defeat.
Triggered by CDPJ’s concerns
The CDPJ’s response to the envisaged merger triggered the CRA’s decision to disband. Initially, the CDPJ and Komeito members of the Senate, the Diet’s upper house, and local assembly members were expected to join the CRA after February’s lower house election. However, the CDPJ harbored strong reservations about the CRA’s security and energy policies,
which leaned toward a pragmatic approach. With opposition also from its local organizations, the CDPJ remained reluctant to go through with the merger.
At a press conference on Wednesday, Komeito Secretary General Makoto Nishida expressed his frustration toward the CDPJ. “It’s regrettable that the agreement between the parties has been broken,” Nishida said.
Komeito had considered the option of having its members join the CRA first ahead of the CDPJ members, but CRA members who are former CDPJ lawmakers were concerned that the CRA could become strong influenced by Komeito. As a result, this option did not materialize. Komeito ultimately decided to withdraw its lower house members from the CRA, thwarting the merger of the three parties.
The parties likely will take unusual paths as they move forward. While maintaining a centrist force by forming a unified parliamentary group, the CRA’s CDPJ-affiliated lawmakers plan to launch a new party, and the Komeito-affiliated lawmakers are expected to rejoin Komeito. CDPJ-affiliated lawmakers will not return to the party due to differences over key policies.
At a press conference, CRA leader Junya Ogawa said the decision to form a new party took into account “the sense of distance with CDPJ lawmakers.” The launch of a new party is intended to project an image of renewal, but skeptics could view it as merely a “change of name.”
It is undeniably difficult to understand why, despite the dissolution of the CRA, its members affiliated with the CDPJ and Komeito both plan to join a unified group to maintain their forces in the lower house. This has been widely seen as a “last-ditch measure” to prevent the Democratic Party for the People, which currently holds 28 seats in the lower house, from taking the lead in the opposition camp.
Fears grow over distrust in politics
The opposition camp currently wields the upper hand in the Senate, where the ruling coalition holds a minority of seats. However, momentum for cooperation between the CDPJ and Komeito is not building partly due to the failed merger. These two parties and the CRA have agreed to draft a counterproposal to legislation related to a consumption tax cut, which the government plans to submit during an extraordinary Diet session this autumn, but discussions have not progressed. The further fragmentation and weakening of the opposition bloc will likely create an even more favorable situation for the powerful ruling coalition.
The CRA won 10.43 million votes in the proportional representation segment of February’s lower house election. Ogawa said the banner of the centrist reform
forces would not be lowered, but the CRA’s dissolution could lead to a loss of public trust in politics.
“Voters saw right through it as an election ploy,” a junior LDP member said. “This is the limit of a hastily launched political party.”