Arya News - Despite leading in the polls, the People’s Party confronts an establishment with a two-decade record of overturning electoral mandates.
Bangkok, Thailand – The orange campaign buses of Thailand’s opposition People’s Party have been hard to miss in recent weeks, winding through cities and villages carrying reformist politicians on what they call the “Choose the Future” tour.
At rally stops, thousands have gathered to hear promises of change.
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For many, the support for the party before Sunday’s general election has stirred hope that the democratic future it promises may finally be within reach.
But in Thailand, winning an election does not guarantee the right to govern.
Known simply as the Orange party for its signature colour, the People’s Party is the latest incarnation of a progressive movement that has repeatedly clashed with Thailand’s royalist conservative establishment. Its predecessor won the last election in 2023, taking 151 seats in the 500-member House. Yet it was blocked from power by a military-appointed Senate and later dissolved by the Constitutional Court over its calls to curb the powers of the monarchy.
“Our ‘soldiers’ might have grown in number, but the conservative side’s arsenal is still devastatingly strong,” said Thankrit Duangmaneeporn, co-director of Breaking the Cycle, a documentary about the “Orange Movement”. But he said he hoped the party could still force the entrenched establishment into a compromise by demonstrating overwhelming support at the polls.
“We will fight at the ballot box on Sunday,” he said. “That is all we can do.”
Overturned mandates
For more than a quarter-century, Thailand – a nation of about 71 million people – has been trapped in a dispiriting loop. Reformist parties win elections, only to be removed by courts, coups or other interventions by judges, generals and tycoons, all loyal to the monarchy.
Many fear the pattern is about to repeat itself.
While opinion polls suggest the People’s Party will again win the most seats on Sunday, analysts say the conservative Bhumjaithai Party, led by caretaker Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, stands a better chance of forming a government.
A January 30 survey by the National Institute of Development Administration put the People’s Party leader, Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, in first place for prime minister with 29.1 percent, followed by Anutin at 22.4 percent. For party lists, the People’s Party led with 34.2 percent, followed by Bhumjaithai at 22.6 percent. In third was Pheu Thai, the party of jailed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, with 16.2 percent.
A candidate for the top job must secure the backing of 251 legislators. Unless the People’s Party can reach that threshold on its own, analysts say Bhumjaithai could manoeuvre – with the support of conservative power brokers, Pheu Thai and smaller parties – into forming the next government.
The People’s Party traces its roots to the Future Forward Party, founded in 2018 with a pledge to curb the influence of unelected institutions. It quickly became the most serious challenge to elite domination of Thai politics and the economy in a generation, winning 81 seats in its first election in 2019.
But it was disbanded by the courts the following year.
Reconstituted as Move Forward, the party went on to win the 2023 election — only to be dissolved again the next year.
‘We don’t use money to buy power’
Rukchanok Srinork, a 32-year-old lawmaker for the reborn People’s Party’s Bangbon District in Bangkok, said past defeats should not extinguish hopes. Speaking from a rally stop in the northern city of Chiang Mai, Rukchanok, who goes by the nickname “Ice”, said her party has already changed Thai politics.
“We are a party that won an election without spending a single baht on buying votes,” she told Al Jazeera, referring to the vote-buying practices that have long shaped Thailand’s elections, particularly in rural areas.
“We don’t use money to buy power,” she said.
Rukchanok’s own rise reflects the party’s appeal.
Once an online vendor, she built a following through social media critiques of corruption and military overreach, then entered the National Assembly on the strength of that support. Her story, she said, showed what could be possible in a fairer system.
“When people understand they have a role and that their voice matters, they won’t lose hope in politics,” Rukchanok said.
But that idealism might not be enough.
Prinya Thaewanarumitkul, a legal scholar at Thammasat University, warned that “money politics” could still tilt outcomes in rural areas, even if voters increasingly “take the money but vote with their heart”.
For the People’s Party, the possibility of forming a government “becomes real” only if it secures 200 seats or more, he added.
A conservative counteroffensive
Anutin, the caretaker prime minister, is the heir to a construction fortune and the face of Thailand’s cannabis legalisation. He became prime minister in August after the Constitutional Court removed his predecessor, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, over her handling of a border crisis with Cambodia.
Since then, he has skilfully exploited nationalist sentiment around the conflict, which killed 149 people on both sides before a ceasefire in December.
“Anyone can say ‘choose me and you won’t regret it,"” Anutin told a rally near the border with Cambodia this week. “But Bhumjaithai says that with the military on our side, we will never be defeated.”
Backed by the royalist establishment, Anutin has assembled a team of seasoned figures from business and diplomatic circles and drawn support from powerful political dynasties that trade their support for cabinet positions.
His party has also rolled out populist policies, including a subsidy programme that covers half the cost of food and has proved popular among struggling households and small businesses.
“I don’t know many other policies,” said Buapan Anusak, 56, at a recent Bhumjaithai rally in Bangkok. “But there also has to be a prime minister that’s patriotic,” she added, referring to the border tensions.
Bhumjaithai has also made inroads into territory once dominated by Pheu Thai, the party that won every election from 2001 until the People’s Party’s breakthrough in 2023.
Pheu Thai’s founder Thaksin, now 76, remains a hero to many for policies like universal healthcare. But Pheu Thai has lost its mantle as the voice of reform to the People’s Party, after it placed second in the last election and joined military-backed parties to form a government. Since then, two of its governments have collapsed, with two prime ministers — including Thaksin’s daughter Paetongtarn — removed by the courts.
Thaksin is currently in prison, with a parole hearing scheduled for May, around the time a new government must be formed.
“Thaksin remains a master of the ‘deal,"” said Prinya, the scholar at Thammasat University. And given Thaksin’s legal troubles and the pending cases against his daughter, the politician “is heavily incentivised to maintain a partnership with the conservative establishment,” Prinya added.
Economic strain
Whoever wins on Sunday will inherit a country in economic distress.
Tariffs have hurt exporters, growth has slowed to less than 2 percent, and tourist arrivals have declined.
“This may be a last chance to repair Thailand’s once-Teflon economy,” said Pavida Pananond, a professor of international business at Thammasat University, referring to the country’s historical resilience. But to bounce back, political stability would be essential, she stressed.
“Respecting the results and avoiding political manoeuvring that derails democratic processes is essential to restore economic confidence,” she added.
Back on the campaign trail, Rukchanok urged Thais not to give up.
“The moment you stop sending your signal by voting, that is when the 1 percent who hold this country’s resources will decide for you,” she said. “People may look at politics and see something ‘dirty’ — full of bluffing, mudslinging and endless arguing. But your life can only change if politics changes.”
She paused, then added: “We still have faith in the people.”