Arya News - Allies worry about the US ability to deter China, even if the bulk of US forces remain in the region.
United States allies in Asia are watching warily as Washington scales back some military assets in the region to meet demands in the Middle East, where the US-Israel war on Iran is dragging into its sixth month.
The latest point of tension came this week as the US moved its last aircraft carrier in Asia – the USS George Washington – from Japan to the Middle East to relieve the USS Abraham Lincoln, which has been deployed for nine months at a stretch. Multiple reports had suggested that there were food shortages on the USS Abraham Lincoln, while broken toilets and showers contributed to unsanitary conditions and poor health. Reports suggested that at least one sailor tried to jump off board.
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Taken together, they dent US power projection in Asia and its ability to counter threats from China, said William Yang, senior analyst for Northeast Asia at the International Crisis Group.
“If we look at this as part of a larger trend … it certainly is creating an impact on the overall effectiveness of the US-led regional deterrence against China,” Yang said about the deployment of the USS George Washington.
While the last US aircraft carrier has left the area – for now – the Chinese fleet has increasingly ventured beyond the First Island Chain, which runs from north of Japan through Taiwan and the northern Philippines to Borneo.
The Cold War defensive line was originally designed to contain Beijing, but it has recently done little to keep China’s Liaoning and Shandong aircraft carriers from moving into the Western Pacific.
In another concerning development for US allies, Chinese coastguard activity has picked up since June in the waters east of Taiwan, which overlap with Japan’s and the Philippines’ exclusive economic zones, Yang said.
“These maritime operations are aimed at Taipei, aimed at Manila, aimed at Tokyo,” Yang told Al Jazeera. “Part of it is also testing the US reaction to these operations and the US capability to respond.”
Ja Ian Chong, a political scientist and security expert at the National University of Singapore, told Al Jazeera that US allies may worry that China will become even more emboldened as the US shifts military assets westward.
“I think US allies and partners may wonder if the move gives [China] more confidence to test and push. That could in turn put more pressure on them,” he told Al Jazeera.
Chong said the aircraft carrier’s redeployment has reduced some US operational flexibility, although US allies could still take comfort in the fact that the lion’s share of US forces remain in the region.
The Asia Pacific region hosts about 375,000 US military and civilian personnel assigned to the US Pacific Command, tens of thousands of whom are stationed in South Korea and Japan.
Chong saw the redeployment as more symbolic of shifts in the US strategy towards Asia, which under Trump sees regional allies as taking the leading role in their own defence, albeit with US support.
The US 2026 National Defense Strategy calls for increased “burden-sharing with allies and partners around the world” to counter threats from China, North Korea, Russia and Iran.
The strategy also calls for allies in Europe and Asia to raise military spending to 3.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) and security-related spending to 1.5 percent of GDP by the 2030s.
South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan have quickly moved to ramp up their defence spending, with Taipei this week announcing it aimed to boost defence spending in 2027 by 18 percent.
Philippines Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr last month called for defence spending to rise to 4 percent of GDP to counter China, as Manila has also moved to deepen its security cooperation with Tokyo and, more quietly, with Taipei.
Chong said that going forward, he expected to see this trend deepen as Asia navigates its way forward.
“US allies and partners have already been increasing their spending and ability to work with less US support. This most recent development may further spur this trend. US allies and partners are also looking for ways to work with each other more, in addition to building their organic capabilities,” he said.
Taiwanese and Japanese security experts also told Al Jazeera they expected US interest – along with its aircraft carriers – to ultimately return to Asia.
Kei Koga, an expert in East Asian security and the US-Japan alliance at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said deploying military assets to the Middle East was “concerning from a short-term perspective” but did not see the move as “evidence of a longer-term US strategic disengagement from the region”.
K Tristan Tang, a non-resident fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research, took a similar view, as key assets like US Amphibious Ready Groups – which can host F-35B stealth fighters and smaller aircraft – remain in the region even as the USS George Washington has moved.
Tang also told Al Jazeera that even with the Iran war dragging on, he did not think Trump would forget about the world’s second-largest superpower.
“Deep down in President Trump’s mind, the most important thing will still be US economic interests and the economic issue with China,” he said. “China is still the most important thing.”