Arya News - Bhutan`s Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay said planning must consider credible worst-case scenarios, climate projections, changing exposure, and compound events.
THIMPHU – More than 70 percent of Bhutan’s settlements are located along major river basins, where roads, bridges, hydropower plants, schools, hospitals, farmland and other critical infrastructure are also concentrated.
As climate change alters rainfall, glacier dynamics and flood patterns, the government has acknowledged that some early-warning systems are ageing, communication remains weak near dangerous glacial lakes, and preparedness must extend beyond disasters the country has experienced in the past.
At the 31st Meet-the-Press session yesterday, Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay said Bhutan must prepare for unprecedented and compound disasters, strengthen warning systems, improve community response and reconsider where settlements and critical infrastructure are located.
Asked whether Bhutan should begin relocating its most vulnerable settlements and infrastructure to safer ground, the Prime Minister said planned relocation should be considered where risks could no longer be reduced to acceptable levels. “The answer should be yes, but in a systematic and risk-informed manner,” Lyonchhen said.
The Prime Minister said the Early Warning System at Thorthormi provides up to six hours of critical evacuation time—six hours for Punakha Dzong, 5.3 hours for Samdingkha and two hours for Lhadi—to save lives, protect property and preserve cultural heritage.
Across the Punatsangchhu basin, 77 communities, 1,196 households and 11,921 people remain vulnerable. Similar EWS systems have also been established in the Mangdechhu and Chamkharchhu basins, strengthening disaster preparedness and resilience.
He said Bhutan’s risk landscape had changed substantially since the 1994 GLOF, with more population, infrastructure, economic activity and essential services concentrated along river valleys.
“The potential consequences of a major flood today could extend well beyond the direct loss of lives and houses,” Lyonchhen said. “Disruption of a major river corridor could affect transportation, electricity generation, communications, food supply, health services and the broader national economy.”
He said future disaster risks were not confined to a single glacial lake or river basin, but involved a combination of cryospheric, hydrometeorological, geological and infrastructure risks.
Climate change is making the situation more uncertain, with changes in temperature, precipitation, glacier retreat and hydrological conditions altering the country’s hazard profile. The formation and growth of supraglacial lakes associated with glacier retreat is a particular concern, while increasing rainfall intensity raises the risk of flash floods and landslides.
Bhutan has experienced major GLOFs in 1957, 1960, 1968, and 1994. The 1994 outburst from Luggye Tsho in Lunana remains the country’s most significant historical GLOF. Floodwaters travelled downstream through the Pho Chhu and Punatsang Chhu, causing extensive damage to settlements, agricultural land, livestock and infrastructure, and killing 22 people.
According to the Prime Minister, these disasters became a major catalyst for Bhutan’s investment in GLOF monitoring and early-warning systems.
He said future planning must consider credible worst-case scenarios, climate projections, changing exposure and compound events. A major GLOF could occur alongside intense rainfall, flash floods, landslides and debris flows, damaging bridges and roads, interrupting electricity and telecommunications, and affecting hydropower and other strategic infrastructure.
Bhutan has identified 2,391 glacial lakes covering approximately 55.56 square kilometres. Of these, 17 are classified as potentially dangerous glacial lakes (PDGLs), following field verification and reassessment of earlier inventories.
The Punatsangchhu basin carries the greatest concentration of this risk. Eleven of the 17 PDGLs are located in its headwaters – nine in the Pho Chhu sub-basin and two in the Mochhu sub-basin. The Mangdechhu and Chamkharchhu basins together account for five PDGLs, with three in Mangdechhu and two in Chamkharchhu. One PDGL is located at the source of Kurichhu.
“The Punatsangchhu valley deserves utmost attention, and is under priority of the government,” Lyonchhen said.
He said preparedness in the basin must cover the entire upstream-to-downstream system, including lake monitoring, hydrological forecasting, evacuation, road access, bridge safety, hydropower emergency planning, protection of cultural assets and continuity of essential public services.
Bhutan currently has operational GLOF early-warning systems in three basins. In the Punatsang Chhu basin, the system was implemented under the National Adaptation Programme of Action-I between 2009 and 2013. In the Mangdechhu and Chamkharchhu basins, systems were installed with support from the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) between 2013 and 2016.
MoHA acknowledged that the systems are now past their prime and require rehabilitation.
According to the ministry, GovTech, the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM), and the Department of Local Governance and Disaster Management (DLGDM) would identify and implement the most effective communication technologies while modernising and upgrading the national early-warning network.
Lyonchhen, however, said a warning system was useful only if people could act on it.
“An early-warning system is only one component of disaster-risk reduction,” he said. “The real test is whether a warning can be converted into timely action – whether the warning reaches the last household, whether people understand it, whether evacuation routes remain accessible, whether vulnerable persons and livestock can be moved, whether emergency services can operate, and whether critical infrastructure can continue functioning.”
To address technology and connectivity gaps, the government submitted a USD 22 million project concept note to the Green Climate Fund (GCF), which was approved in June 2026.
The Ministry of Finance and NCHM, in collaboration with the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), are developing the full proposal titled “Enhancing Climate Information and Multi-Hazard Early Warning for Resilience in Bhutan.”
The government is also pursuing financing through the World Bank and global climate funds.
“Disaster risk reduction and early warning are not optional expenditures; they are core investments in national security and economic stability,” the Prime Minister said. He added that he would take the discussion forward with the GEF at the United Nations General Assembly.
So far, DLGDM has conducted GLOF awareness programmes in 40 vulnerable communities in Punakha and three communities in Wangdue.
According to the Prime Minister, similar evacuation drills would be expanded to vulnerable communities in the Chamkharchhu, Mangdechhu and Pachhu basins.
“While we cannot prevent natural hazards like GLOFs from occurring, concerted public awareness programmes, regular simulation drills, and active community contingency plans ensure that loss of life and economic damages are kept to an absolute minimum,” he said.
Lyonchhen also said every high-risk community and critical institution should have tested evacuation and emergency plans, including schools, hospitals, hydropower plants, government offices and religious institutions.
He outlined five priorities: strengthening risk knowledge through continuous glacier, glacial-lake, rainfall and river monitoring; improving multi-hazard and impact-based early-warning systems; ensuring tested evacuation plans for high-risk communities and institutions; making critical infrastructure climate- and disaster-resilient; and preventing new exposure while considering phased relocation where risks cannot be reduced.