Arya News - The capture of Tigray’s regional capital revives fears of another prolonged conflict, displacement and crisis.
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia – The capture of Tigray’s regional capital Mekelle by Ethiopian federal forces and allied Tigray Peace Force fighters has revived painful memories of the 2020–22 Tigray war, with residents fearing a return to prolonged violence, displacement and economic hardship.
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) confirmed on Saturday that it had withdrawn from Mekelle, saying its regional administration would temporarily operate from another location. Government forces and allied fighters entered the city on Saturday, with a pro-government militia source, a humanitarian worker and a Mekelle resident confirming to the Reuters news agency on Sunday that they were in control of the city.
The development comes less than four years after the Ethiopian government and the TPLF signed the Pretoria agreement that ended two years of devastating fighting.
Berihu, a 32-year-old bajaj driver in Shire, northwestern Tigray, said the latest fighting had been particularly difficult to watch.
“I feel very heartbroken knowing that Tigray has gone back to full-scale war,” he said in a phone interview with Al Jazeera. “We have already seen what the last war did to our people, and now it feels like we are going through it all over again.”
The 2020–22 war killed hundreds of thousands of people, according to estimates, displaced millions and caused extensive damage to infrastructure and livelihoods.
The African Union-facilitated agreement, signed in Pretoria in November 2022, ended the large-scale fighting, but key issues, including the status of disputed territories, the return of displaced people and the disarmament of Tigrayan forces, remained unresolved.
In July, the TPLF said the Pretoria agreement had effectively collapsed, accusing the federal government of failing to implement key provisions. The federal government rejected that characterisation, saying it remained committed to the peace process while accusing the TPLF of undermining the agreement.
The political dispute was accompanied by growing military tensions, including reports of sporadic clashes and drone strikes in parts of Tigray. The two sides also traded accusations over troop movements and preparations for renewed fighting.
The capture of Mekelle marks a major development in the renewed conflict, putting the city once again at the centre of the fighting.
Fear spreads beyond Tigray
In Addis Ababa, the developments have also alarmed residents who remember the consequences of the previous war.
Abel, a 30-year-old shopkeeper, said the fighting had felt distant until explosions were heard in the capital .
“I woke up and heard that my city had been hit,” he said. “You hear about fighting in Tigray, and it feels far away. But when you hear about explosions in Addis Ababa, you start asking yourself what will happen next.”
Diplomatic sources said explosions were heard in several parts of the capital, including near the headquarters of Ethiopia’s military. Reuters separately reported that a source linked to an opposition alliance claimed the group had carried out drone strikes in Addis Ababa, including against military facilities. The claim could not be independently verified.
For Abel, the economic consequences are as concerning as the fighting itself.
“If the war becomes bigger, ordinary people will suffer,” he said.
Bisrat, a college student in Addis Ababa, said the overnight explosions had reinforced his fear that Ethiopia could be entering a much wider conflict.
“If Ethiopia goes into a full-scale war, ordinary people will suffer,” he said. “I fear seeing another Sudan.”
Sudan has been engulfed in war since April 2023, when fighting broke out between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, displacing millions and creating a major humanitarian crisis.
The current fighting also involves a wider set of actors than the Tigray war that ended in 2022. The TPLF is part of a broader opposition alliance that includes armed groups from several parts of the country.
Fighting has also spread into Afar, while relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have sharply deteriorated.
Ethiopian officials have accused Eritrea of interfering in Ethiopia’s internal affairs and supporting forces opposed to the federal government. Eritrea has rejected the accusations.
On Thursday, Ethiopia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the closure of its embassy in Asmara and declared 10 Eritrean diplomats persona non grata, saying they had been involved in activities that posed a threat to Ethiopia’s national security.
Eritrea subsequently announced that it was severing diplomatic relations with Ethiopia.
The diplomatic rupture has added to concerns that the renewed fighting could acquire a wider regional dimension.
Mekelle changes hands again
In Mekelle, residents were left trying to understand what comes next after the TPLF withdrawal.
Goitom, 37, said there was a period of uncertainty after TPLF forces left the city, with what he described as a security vacuum allowing theft in some areas, including government offices.
“On Friday night, we were hearing gunfire but did not know what was happening,” he said.
By Saturday, Ethiopian federal forces and allied fighters had taken control of key locations, including the airport, according to Goitom. Reuters and The Associated Press news agency also reported that government-aligned forces had entered Mekelle following the TPLF withdrawal.
“It feels like we are back to square one,” he said. “We have already seen what war can do to this city and to our families. People are worried about what will happen next.”
The TPLF, however, portrayed the withdrawal as a tactical decision rather than an end to the fighting.
In a statement issued on Saturday, the group said it had “temporarily moved out of Mekelle” and that the regional government would “operate from somewhere else”. It said the decision was intended to prevent further destruction in the city and indicated that its forces would continue the conflict from other positions.
For the federal government, the capture of Mekelle represents a significant step towards restoring federal control over the region.
Abraham Belay, former president of the Tigray Interim Administration, said on Sunday that preparations were under way to establish a new interim administration in Tigray, with the aim of holding regional elections within months.
“We are working to establish a new administrative structure that will enable the people of Tigray to govern themselves,” Abraham said in an interview with Fana Broadcasting Corporate.
He said new administrative structures would be organised from the kebele level upwards, with community participation, before regional elections were held.
The competing accounts leave the next phase of the conflict uncertain. The federal government says it is seeking to restore its authority and establish a new regional administration, while the TPLF says its forces will continue fighting from elsewhere.
Civilian fears return to the fore
For people who lived through the previous war, the return of fighting has brought back fears of displacement, destruction and another prolonged humanitarian crisis.
Berihu, the bajaj driver, said he had seen villages bombed and civilians caught up in the fighting during the previous conflict, experiences that have shaped his fears about what could follow.
“It is painful to even think that civilians could once again bear the cost,” he said.
After years of displacement, loss and disruption, he said, many people in Tigray simply want the fighting to stop.
“We have already suffered enough,” Berihu said. “We just want peace. We don’t want to go through the same thing again.”