Arya News - Nuclear-armed North Korea and South Korea, a security ally of the US, have an uneasy truce after their 1950-53 war ended in an armistice.
SEOUL – As speculation mounts over a possible Trump-Kim summit before the end of 2026, experts have warned that, given tensions in the United States-South Korea alliance, such a meeting could leave Seoul marginalised and less secure.
A renewed push by US President Donald Trump to engage North Korean leader Kim Jong Un could give South Korea an opportunity to advance its peace agenda with Pyongyang, but also risks weakening its security position if Washington and Pyongyang reach a deal without adequately addressing Seoul’s concerns.
Nuclear-armed North Korea and South Korea, a security ally of the US, have an uneasy truce after their 1950-53 war ended in an armistice.
Recent signs have pointed to a growing possibility of a fourth Trump-Kim summit before the end of the year.
Trump said in August that he expected to meet North Korea’s Kim again in 2026. Just a day before his comment, the Wall Street Journal, citing US officials, reported that Trump had privately discussed with aides the possibility of meeting Kim during his expected November trip to China for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen.
In response, Kim’s powerful sister Kim Yo Jong said on Aug 19 that she was not aware of any communication between her brother and Trump, but acknowledged that her brother still had “good memories and feelings” about Trump.
But on Sept 1, South Korea’s spy agency told lawmakers in a closed-door briefing that a Trump-Kim summit could happen “at any time”, citing signs of dialogue between Washington and Pyongyang.
On Sept 2, speaking at a meeting of overseas advisers on Korean Peninsula peace, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung reiterated his pledge to create “conditions for constructive discussions to build trust and resume dialogue between North Korea and the United States”.
He added that “peace on the Korean Peninsula ensures the security of North-east Asia and also world peace”.
Based on these recent developments, Cheong Seong-Chang, vice-president of the Seoul-based think tank the Sejong Institute, raised his estimate of the chances of a fourth Trump-Kim summit this year from 10 per cent to 60 per cent, during a press briefing on Sept 3 organised by the Seoul Foreign Correspondents’ Club.
Speaking on the topic of a possible US-North Korea summit’s impact on South Korea and the US-South Korea alliance, Cheong said a fourth summit was less likely to be a “denuclearisation summit”, which was the case for the previous Trump-Kim meetings, and more likely to focus on nuclear risk management and arms control.
Trump and Kim met three times, once in 2018 and twice in 2019, during Trump’s first term in 2017-2021. But the collapse of their second summit in Hanoi in 2019 ultimately derailed the diplomatic process, contributing to a prolonged freeze in inter-Korean relations.
Given the shift in focus from denuclearisation this time round, Cheong warned that the substance of any summit negotiations would be critical for Seoul, particularly if Trump prioritises reducing threats to the US mainland over addressing the security concerns of its Asian allies.
One example he cited was the need for South Korea to guard against a possible deal that limits North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the continental US while leaving its shorter-range, nuclear-capable missiles largely intact.
Such an agreement could reduce the nuclear threat to the US while leaving South Korea and Japan exposed to North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities.
An agreement that is judged a success in Washington and Pyongyang but leaves the region less secure would be more dangerous, Cheong said.
Another red line for Seoul, Cheong said, would be any US agreement to suspend indefinitely the combined US-South Korea military exercises which are critical to the defence preparedness of the South against potential aggression from the North.
Such military exercises are a major friction point for Pyongyang, which routinely denounces them as aggressive rehearsals for war and acts of “hostility and provocation”.
Most recently, it threatened a “hardline response” to trilateral military drills involving South Korea, the US and Japan, scheduled to be held on Jeju island from Sept 7 to 11.
“It would not be a balanced bargain if North Korea continues to produce fissile material and nuclear warheads while Seoul and Washington suspend their exercises for an extended period,” Cheong said.
He noted that Pyongyang is unlikely to agree to a “verifiable freeze” on fissile material production, particularly in the early stages of negotiations.
He said any benefits offered to North Korea, including broad sanctions relief, should be provided in stages and calibrated to the extent to which Pyongyang actually reduces its nuclear threat and accepts verification.
Cheong also warned that Seoul cannot afford to be “a bystander or a mere cheerleader” at a Trump-Kim summit, but must instead “be an architect of the negotiating framework” to protect its interests.
Kim Jae-chun, a professor at Seoul’s Sogang University’s Graduate School of International Studies, shared the same assessment. He was speaking at the same briefing as Cheong.
Given the “immense pressure” that the US-South Korea alliance is currently under, he expressed concern that another round of Trump-Kim summitry could take place “on a very different trajectory”, with Washington and Pyongyang potentially reaching an understanding at the expense of South Korea’s interests.
Bilateral relations between the US and South Korea have hit repeated speed bumps since Trump returned to the White House in January 2025.
The latest came when Trump abruptly announced on Truth Social on Aug 17 that the allies would substantially scale back their joint military drills, just hours before they were due to begin.
The professor described Trump’s unilateral decision, made without prior consultation with Seoul, as a “diplomatic breach”, saying the announcement blindsided Seoul and damaged trust between the allies.
In response to The Straits Times’ question about what South Korea can do to ensure its interests are not sidelined in a future Trump-Kim meeting amid strained ties with Washington, he said Seoul realistically holds limited leverage as the “junior partner” in the alliance.
South Korea should instead continue to demonstrate its strategic value to the Trump administration, highlighting its importance to the US in areas including shipbuilding, semiconductors and nuclear energy cooperation, he said.
The professor also said he believed that, while Trump may be powerful, “some semblance of checks and balances remains in the American political system”.
“We just have to continue to work hard to convince the Trump administration, the American policymakers, that we are an indispensable ally,” he said.